From Nineteen Eighty-Four to Black Mirror, we are all familiar with the tropes of dystopian science fiction. But what if worst-case scenarios could actually become reality? And what if we could do something now to put the world on a better path?
In Avoiding the Worst: How to Prevent a Moral Catastrophe, I lay out the concept of risks of future suffering (s-risks). With a focus on s-risks that are both realistic and avoidable, I argue that we have strong reasons to consider their reduction a top priority. Finally, I turn to the question of what we can do to help steer the world away from s-risks and towards a brighter future.
You can get the book for free on Amazon or read the PDF version.
Other writings
Please note that these are older posts that do not necessarily reflect my current thinking.
S-risks
- S-risks: An introduction
- Arguments for and against a focus on s-risks
- S-risk FAQ
- A typology of s-risks
- Risk factors for s-risks
- How can we reduce s-risks?
Thoughts on cause prioritization
- Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors
- Space governance is important, tractable and neglected
- Is most suffering due to worst-case outcomes?
- How can we influence the long-term future?
- Representing future generations in the political process
- Improving our political system: An overview
- Thoughts on patient philanthropy
- Thoughts on longtermism
- Chaos theory, attractors and longtermism
- Arguments for and against moral advocacy
- An overview of wagers for reducing future suffering
The future of artificial intelligence
- Summary of my views on AI risk
- A framework for thinking about AI timescales
- Thoughts on short timelines
- What does the stock market tell us about AI timelines?
- Why I expect successful (narrow) alignment
- Should altruists focus on artificial intelligence?
Worst-case AI safety
- An introduction to worst-case AI safety
- Focus areas of worst-case AI safety
- Mechanism design for AI
- Cooperative Artificial Intelligence (MPhil thesis)
Surrogate goals
- Using surrogate goals to deflect threats
- Challenges to implementing surrogate goals
- Surrogate goals under uncertainty
- Surrogate goals and private information
Miscellaneous
- Spanish translations of my publications
- Thoughts on electoral reform
- Thoughts on space colonisation
- AMA on the Effective Altruism Forum
- Open Research Questions
- Sentience Politics Philosophy Sequence:
Further reading
- Center for Reducing Suffering
- Resources on suffering-focused ethics
- Brian Tomasik’s Essays on Reducing Suffering
- Magnus Vinding’s blog
- Simon Knutsson’s writing on ethics
- Center on Long-Term Risk